New analysis from Reuters notes that, while Donald Trump’s return to the White House anticipates a prioritisation of fossil fuel production over alternatives, experts believe the growth of renewable energy will remain strong due to foundational support from current legislation.
Central to this resilience is the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA), a Biden administration law that provides extensive subsidies for solar, wind, and other clean energy projects for the next decade.
Ed Hirs, Energy Fellow at the University of Houston, affirmed, “I don’t think a Trump presidency can slow the transition. This is well underway.”
Renewable energy, led by solar and wind, has been the fastest-growing segment on the U.S. power grid, spurred by tax incentives, state mandates, and advancing technologies that have reduced costs.
Signed in 2022, the IRA offers billions in subsidies aimed at decarbonising the power sector by 2035. Although Trump criticised the IRA as excessive and pledged to rescind any remaining funds, repealing the law would require Congress, where even many Republican states have reaped economic benefits from solar investments.
“The jobs and economic benefits have been so heavy in red states, it’s hard to see an administration come in that says we don’t like this,” said Carl Fleming of McDermott Will & Emery.
Impact range
Analysts agree that while Trump could impact renewable energy policy indirectly – such as limiting federal leasing for offshore wind or cutting agency budgets tied to the IRA – any effects on solar and other renewables would likely be marginal.
Many solar and wind projects operate on private land, insulating them from shifts in federal land leasing.
In the immediate timeframe, the announcement of Trump’s win led to an immediate dip in European renewable energy stocks, notably for companies like Danish wind turbine maker Vestas.
This result is presumed by analysts to be due to Trump’s pledge to dismantle renewable projects such as offshore wind, and his intention to withdraw the US from the Paris climate agreement, as he did during his previous term.
