China’s solar capacity growth is expected to slow in the second half of 2025 following reforms that removed guaranteed pricing for renewable projects, according to Reuters.
Analysts predict full-year additions will still hit record highs due to accelerated construction in the first half. However, the slowdown could further impact manufacturers already facing oversupply and a price war.
Morningstar estimates global manufacturers, mostly based in China, can produce over twice the number of panels the world will buy this year.
China installed 212GW of new solar capacity between January and June, more than double the same period in 2024, National Energy Administration (NEA) data shows.
Based on this, Natixis expects a total of 300GW for 2025, implying 88GW in the second half, while Fitch Solutions’ BMI projects 310GW, suggesting 98GW later in the year. In 2024, the second half alone added 175GW, contributing to a record annual 277GW.
The reforms, introduced earlier this year, mean projects built from June must sell electricity at market prices, with rates varying by province.
“All of the projects were rushing to be commissioned ahead of the last window where they have basically guaranteed revenue,” said Linda Zeng, senior power and renewables analyst for BMI.
She added that while annual additions will still be higher “because of the sheer scale of the first half”, future monthly gains could remain at June’s 14GW. From 2026, installations are forecast to stabilise at around 250 GW annually.
Meanwhile, think tank Ember reported that China’s solar cell exports rose 73% in the first half of 2025, led by demand from India.
“Cell and wafer exports are more than making up for the stagnation in Chinese solar panel exports so far in 2025,” said Matt Ewen, Energy Systems Analyst at Ember.
