The return of Donald Trump to the White House created seismic changes to the geopolitical energy landscape throughout 2025.
To many onlookers, it seems that 2026 will continue in kind; the USA’s strikes on Venezuela indicate an escalation of the administration’s pro-fossil fuel agenda.
Background overview
January 3rd 2026 saw the US enact a military and economic takeover of Venezuela – arresting controversial president Nicolás Maduro – with Trump stating that the USA will “run” the country for an indefinite amount of time.
Pundits argue that the move is most likely a play at obtaining Venezuela’s oil reserves, which are the world’s largest. Notably, Trump’s press conference following the incursion focused heavily on Venezuela’s “badly broken” oil infrastructure alongside his desire to stabilise the country.
Why Venezuela?
Venezuela sits on more than 300 billion barrels of oil, which make up almost one-fifth of the world’s stock. However, since the 1970s, production has declined from 8% of global supply (around 3.5m barrels per day) to under 1% as of 2026 (under 1m bpd)
As such, increasing oil production in the country offers lucrative benefits for stakeholders.
Trump’s self-proclaimed plan is to introduce US oil companies to Venezuela’s reserves to “revitalise” the infrastructure: “The oil business in Venezuela has been a bust, a total bust for a long period of time,” he claimed at the press conference.
“We’re going to have our very large United States oil companies, the biggest anywhere in the world, go in, spend billions of dollars, fix the badly broken infrastructure, the oil infrastructure, and start making money for the country.”
A spotlight shines on US oil companies
Currently, one US energy company is operating in Venezuela – Chevron. “We continue to operate in full compliance with all relevant laws and regulations,” the company commented in response to the news.
US oil and gas producer ConocoPhillips stated that it is “monitoring developments in Venezuela and their potential implications for global energy supply and stability,” but that it would be “premature to speculate on any future business activities or investments.”
Eyes are on both major US and international energy companies to see if they make their stance on the oil-driven incursion clear.
The US goes “all-in” on fossil fuels
Xtra has previously reported that re-prioritising fossil fuel production is a clear pillar of Trump’s domestic policy. In the president’s inaugural speech, his intention to reinforce the US’ oil industry was encapsulated by his line “we will drill, baby, drill”.
Oil was at the core of 2025’s “Big Beautiful Bill”, which was followed by a tightening of clean energy tax credits and cancellation of grants for renewable projects. The US’ solar industry found itself particularly targeted.
By securing Venezuelan oil, Trump will receive ample fuel for the US’ future power projects and reduce the price of oil domestically. The US will additionally be able to control international access to Venezuela’s oil, to the benefit and detriment of other nations.
Impact on renewable energy
The implications for the renewable sector will be top-of-mind for international developers for several reasons.
American market volatility
Domestically, the “Big Beautiful Bill” continues to create a climate of extreme uncertainty. The US renewable industry relied heavily on the long-term certainty of the now-repealed Inflation Reduction Act (IRA), which provided major clean energy tax credits.
If more subsidies are gutted in favour of a “fossil-first” policy supported by cheap oil imports from Venezuela, many capital-intensive solar and wind projects may no longer be bankable.
International market changes
Internationally, a surge in Venezuelan production could lead to a global oil overabundance. Countries may find it more politically and economically convenient to invest in cheap oil rather than in more expensive green infrastructure.
Should oil begin to undercut the cost of clean energy in this way, the industry will likely see an increase in the cancellation or defunding of green projects worldwide.
Additionally, if the US retreats from clean energy production and manufacturing, the resulting market vacuum will be open to another major renewable power. Nations with an ever-expanding clean technology manufacturing industry, such as China, may be poised to increase their foothold further.
What now?
While Trump’s takeover of Venezuela may offer short-term relief for the US’ petrol prices, it places the global renewable industry at a crossroads.
The current US administration’s aversion to renewable energy is not new news to the industry; however, it leaves time for companies and countries alike to adapt to the situation.
While it presents an opportunity for oil and gas companies to capitalise on new supply, it also offers renewable stakeholders a chance to demonstrate leadership in pursuing renewables amid adversity.
It also serves as a reminder of the benefits of investing in renewable energy infrastructure: energy independence and security, and a cleaner climate.
[Header caption: Donald Trump delivers a press conference after ‘Operation Absolute Resolve’. Image credit: The White House]
