Europe is expected to add 110 GW of new solar photovoltaic (PV) capacity in 2025, according to Liam Coman, solar market analyst at S&P Global Commodity Insights.
Speaking at the opening of Tongwei’s new European office in Frankfurt, Coman highlighted that European solar PV growth will slow to single-digit rates after 2026.
“In three years, the market will grow from about a 50GW market to a 110GW market in 2025, more than doubling in just three years,” he said.
This growth would nearly double the 56 GW of solar PV capacity installed in 2023, according to SolarPower Europe’s (SPE) yearly report. For 2024, SPE projects 62GW, while S&P’s forecast is closer to 95GW.
Coman identified key growth markets in recent years as Germany, Eastern Europe, Spain, and Italy, which accounted for nearly half of Europe’s total installed capacity.
Despite this early growth, Coman explained that the latter half of the 2020s will likely see a deceleration due to increasing grid interconnection challenges. “The number one thing that we need to do is invest in the grid,” Coman noted, emphasising the need for grid upgrades to sustain solar PV growth.
He also pointed out that recent low and volatile power prices could impact future utility-scale solar projects. By the end of the decade, Europe is forecast to add 130GW annually, with continued growth in the rooftop market expected to reach 85GW by 2030.
Globally, S&P projects solar installations to reach 580 GW in 2025, contrasting with BloombergNEF’s estimate of nearly 600 GW. Coman noted, “We do see growth slowing somewhat in 2025 to a 7% growth rate.”
This growth is largely driven by China, which added as much capacity in 2023 as the entire global market did in 2022.
Coman added that global growth is diversifying, with 45 countries expected to install over 1GW by 2024, up from 16 in 2021.
In Europe, Romania, Lithuania, and Ireland are set to exceed 1 GW for the first time this year, while Malaysia, Uzbekistan, and Iran will see similar milestones by 2025.
