China’s solar cell exports rose by 73% in the first half of 2025, driven largely by demand from India, according to new analysis by energy think tank Ember.
Cells and wafers together made up over 40% of China’s solar product exports during the period – for the first time, cells have overtaken wafers in share – while panel exports fell by 5.2% year-on-year.
Ember said cell exports grew by 76% (+19GW) and wafer exports by 26% (+8.6GW), offsetting panel market stagnation caused by stockpile drawdowns and slower installations in Europe and Brazil.
“Cell and wafer exports are more than making up for the stagnation in Chinese solar panel exports so far in 2025,” said Matt Ewen, Energy Systems Analyst at Ember.
“India is driving growth in cell exports, whilst panels must now find new markets to go to.”
India, Indonesia, and Türkiye accounted for 75% of Chinese cell exports in 2025, with India alone responsible for 52% of the year-on-year growth.
India’s panel manufacturing capacity has outpaced its cell capacity, prompting a near doubling of cell imports from China to 21GW in the first six months of the year. The country aims for 65 GW of domestic cell capacity by 2030.
Global price trends have played a significant role. Cell prices have fallen by 82% since late 2022, contributing to a 63% reduction in panel prices.
Since August 2022, cell prices have dropped from $0.19/W to $0.03/W, and panel prices from $0.29/W to $0.09/W.
More than half the raw cost of Chinese panels now comes from non-cell components such as glass and aluminium frames.
While Asia imported 114GW of Chinese solar products in the first half of 2025 – more than twice Europe’s 54GW – some established markets have contracted.
Panel imports from China to the Netherlands fell 30%, while Brazil’s were down 42%. Ember noted that EU solar capacity additions are expected to fall for the first time since 2016.
China remains dominant across the supply chain, producing 98% of global wafers, 92% of cells, and 85% of panels in 2023, according to the International Energy Agency.
In June 2025, India reached a record 50% of energy capacity from clean sources for the first time, and solar now accounts for 24% of the country’s total capacity.
“With solar capacity set to double in many states by 2030-35, India’s development of local industry underpins its commitment to clean power,” the report concludes.
[Graph credit: Ember]
