The United States added nearly 18GW of new solar capacity in the first half of 2025, according to the latest US Solar Market Insight Q3 2025 report from the Solar Energy Industries Association (SEIA) and Wood Mackenzie.
Solar and storage together accounted for 82% of all new power added to the grid in the first six months of the year.
The growth comes amid a shifting policy environment. The passage of the One Big Beautiful Bill Act (HR1) and subsequent Trump administration measures targeting solar have led analysts to revise deployment forecasts downwards.
The report’s low-case forecast warns the US risks losing 44GW of solar deployment by 2030, an 18% decline compared to earlier expectations. When measured against pre-HR1 projections, the potential loss increases to 55 GW, or 21%.
“Solar and storage are the backbone of America’s energy future, delivering the majority of new power to the grid at the lowest cost to families and businesses,” said SEIA president and CEO Abigail Ross Hopper.
“Instead of unleashing this American economic engine, the Trump administration is deliberately stifling investment, which is raising energy costs for families and businesses, and jeopardising the reliability of our electric grid.
“But no matter what policies this administration releases, the solar and storage industry will continue to grow, because the market is demanding what we’re delivering: reliable, affordable, American-made energy.”
The report notes that 77% of all new solar capacity installed in 2025 has been built in states won by President Trump, including eight of the top 10 states for installations: Texas, Indiana, Arizona, Florida, Ohio, Missouri, Kentucky and Arkansas.
Manufacturing has also expanded, with 13GW of new solar module production capacity added in the first half of 2025. This brings total US solar module manufacturing capacity to 55 GW.
However, no new upstream manufacturing investment was recorded in the second quarter, with federal policies cited as a risk to momentum and private capital inflows.
The forecast indicates solar deployment could fall 4% below the pre-HR1 base case by 2030. Short-term activity remains supported by projects already underway, developers working to meet tax credit deadlines, and rising power demand as gas generation becomes more costly and less available.
Orders from the DOI
The Department of the Interior (DOI) has also issued orders that single out solar for more stringent permitting treatment, which the report estimates could affect 44GW of planned projects, particularly in Arizona, California, Utah and Nevada.
“There is considerable downside risk for the solar industry if the federal permitting environment creates more constraints for solar projects,” said Michelle Davis, head of solar research at Wood Mackenzie.
“The solar industry is already navigating dramatic policy changes as a result of HR1. Further uncertainty from federal policy actions is making the business environment for the solar industry incredibly challenging.”
SEIA has written to DOI Secretary Doug Burgum, warning that if executive actions are not reversed, they could lead to job losses, higher electricity costs, and reduced competitiveness for the US economy.
