SolarPower Europe’s latest market analysis projects a -1.4% decline in EU solar installations for 2025 – the first drop in annual growth since 2015.
EU Market Outlook for Solar Power: 2025 Mid-Year Analysis follows two years of exceptional expansion and a modest rise in 2024, when the bloc installed 65.1GW. In 2025, installations are expected to fall slightly to 64.2GW.
Despite this dip, the EU is still on course to meet its 2025 solar target of 400GW. By the end of the year, the bloc is forecast to host 402GW of solar capacity.
However, SolarPower Europe warns that current trends put 2030 targets at risk. The EU needs to add nearly 70GW of solar annually to reach 750 GW by the end of the decade; current trajectories point to just 723GW by 2030.
“The number may seem small, but the symbolism is big,” said Dries Acke, Deputy CEO of SolarPower Europe.
“Market decline, right when solar is meant to be accelerating, deserves EU leaders’ attention. Europe needs competitive electricity, energy security, and climate solutions. Solar delivers on all of those needs.
“Now policymakers must deliver the electrification, flexibility and energy storage frameworks that will drive solar success through the rest of the decade.”
A slump in residential rooftop installations largely drives the downturn. Markets including Italy, the Netherlands, Austria, Belgium, Czechia, and Hungary have seen households postpone installations as the effects of the 2022 energy crisis subside and incentives are withdrawn.
Rooftop installations are down over 60% in some regions, while Poland, Spain, and Germany face declines exceeding 40%.
Utility-scale stays strong
In contrast, utility-scale solar remains strong, supported by improved auction design. In 2024, EU countries awarded a record 20GW, with Germany leading in hybrid solar-storage projects.
Auctions continue to attract competitive bids, with Germany’s latest innovation tender seeing prices fall to €0.05/kWh.
“Utility-scale solar remains the backbone of EU deployment,” Jonathan Gorremans, Market Analyst for SolarPower Europe, commented on LinkedIn. “It’s expected to account for half of all new installations in 2025.”
This aligns with IRENA’s Renewable Energy Statistics 2025 report, released earlier this month, noting that energy capacity grew by 15% in 2024, but regional gaps were widening.
However, corporate Power Purchase Agreements (cPPAs) – once a key driver of large-scale solar – have declined, with a 41% drop in signed deals between Q1 and Q2 of 2025.
Falling electricity prices are reducing long-term contracting incentives, highlighting the need for improved policy support.
Even amid challenges, solar’s role in Europe is growing. June 2025 marked the first time solar generated most the EU’s electricity for a full month, underscoring its central role in the continent’s energy future.
[Graph credit: SolarPower Europe]
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